diff --git a/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/Inference/InferMutationAliasingEffects.ts b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/Inference/InferMutationAliasingEffects.ts
index 8b82e685b0bd..911f71329b44 100644
--- a/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/Inference/InferMutationAliasingEffects.ts
+++ b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/Inference/InferMutationAliasingEffects.ts
@@ -748,10 +748,14 @@ function applyEffect(
     case 'Alias':
     case 'Capture': {
       CompilerError.invariant(
-        effect.kind === 'Capture' || initialized.has(effect.into.identifier.id),
+        effect.kind === 'Capture' ||
+          effect.kind === 'MaybeAlias' ||
+          initialized.has(effect.into.identifier.id),
         {
-          reason: `Expected destination value to already be initialized within this instruction for Alias effect`,
-          description: `Destination ${printPlace(effect.into)} is not initialized in this instruction`,
+          reason: `Expected destination to already be initialized within this instruction`,
+          description:
+            `Destination ${printPlace(effect.into)} is not initialized in this ` +
+            `instruction for effect ${printAliasingEffect(effect)}`,
           details: [
             {
               kind: 'error',
@@ -767,49 +771,67 @@ function applyEffect(
        * copy-on-write semantics, then we can prune the effect
        */
       const intoKind = state.kind(effect.into).kind;
-      let isMutableDesination: boolean;
+      let destinationType: 'context' | 'mutable' | null = null;
       switch (intoKind) {
-        case ValueKind.Context:
-        case ValueKind.Mutable:
-        case ValueKind.MaybeFrozen: {
-          isMutableDesination = true;
+        case ValueKind.Context: {
+          destinationType = 'context';
           break;
         }
-        default: {
-          isMutableDesination = false;
+        case ValueKind.Mutable:
+        case ValueKind.MaybeFrozen: {
+          destinationType = 'mutable';
           break;
         }
       }
       const fromKind = state.kind(effect.from).kind;
-      let isMutableReferenceType: boolean;
+      let sourceType: 'context' | 'mutable' | 'frozen' | null = null;
       switch (fromKind) {
+        case ValueKind.Context: {
+          sourceType = 'context';
+          break;
+        }
         case ValueKind.Global:
         case ValueKind.Primitive: {
-          isMutableReferenceType = false;
           break;
         }
         case ValueKind.Frozen: {
-          isMutableReferenceType = false;
-          applyEffect(
-            context,
-            state,
-            {
-              kind: 'ImmutableCapture',
-              from: effect.from,
-              into: effect.into,
-            },
-            initialized,
-            effects,
-          );
+          sourceType = 'frozen';
           break;
         }
         default: {
-          isMutableReferenceType = true;
+          sourceType = 'mutable';
           break;
         }
       }
-      if (isMutableDesination && isMutableReferenceType) {
+
+      if (sourceType === 'frozen') {
+        applyEffect(
+          context,
+          state,
+          {
+            kind: 'ImmutableCapture',
+            from: effect.from,
+            into: effect.into,
+          },
+          initialized,
+          effects,
+        );
+      } else if (
+        (sourceType === 'mutable' && destinationType === 'mutable') ||
+        effect.kind === 'MaybeAlias'
+      ) {
         effects.push(effect);
+      } else if (
+        (sourceType === 'context' && destinationType != null) ||
+        (sourceType === 'mutable' && destinationType === 'context')
+      ) {
+        applyEffect(
+          context,
+          state,
+          {kind: 'MaybeAlias', from: effect.from, into: effect.into},
+          initialized,
+          effects,
+        );
       }
       break;
     }
diff --git a/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/Inference/InferMutationAliasingRanges.ts b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/Inference/InferMutationAliasingRanges.ts
index 32f84e1e28b2..43148dc4c67f 100644
--- a/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/Inference/InferMutationAliasingRanges.ts
+++ b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/Inference/InferMutationAliasingRanges.ts
@@ -779,7 +779,13 @@ class AliasingState {
         if (edge.index >= index) {
           break;
         }
-        queue.push({place: edge.node, transitive, direction: 'forwards', kind});
+        queue.push({
+          place: edge.node,
+          transitive,
+          direction: 'forwards',
+          // Traversing a maybeAlias edge always downgrades to conditional mutation
+          kind: edge.kind === 'maybeAlias' ? MutationKind.Conditional : kind,
+        });
       }
       for (const [alias, when] of node.createdFrom) {
         if (when >= index) {
@@ -807,7 +813,12 @@ class AliasingState {
           if (when >= index) {
             continue;
           }
-          queue.push({place: alias, transitive, direction: 'backwards', kind});
+          queue.push({
+            place: alias,
+            transitive,
+            direction: 'backwards',
+            kind,
+          });
         }
         /**
          * MaybeAlias indicates potential data flow from unknown function calls,
diff --git a/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/Validation/ValidateNoRefAccessInRender.ts b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/Validation/ValidateNoRefAccessInRender.ts
index eb053ac4196a..abbb7d847698 100644
--- a/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/Validation/ValidateNoRefAccessInRender.ts
+++ b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/Validation/ValidateNoRefAccessInRender.ts
@@ -639,12 +639,55 @@ function validateNoRefAccessInRenderImpl(
           case 'StartMemoize':
           case 'FinishMemoize':
             break;
+          case 'LoadGlobal': {
+            if (instr.value.binding.name === 'undefined') {
+              env.set(instr.lvalue.identifier.id, {kind: 'Nullable'});
+            }
+            break;
+          }
           case 'Primitive': {
             if (instr.value.value == null) {
               env.set(instr.lvalue.identifier.id, {kind: 'Nullable'});
             }
             break;
           }
+          case 'UnaryExpression': {
+            if (instr.value.operator === '!') {
+              const value = env.get(instr.value.value.identifier.id);
+              const refId =
+                value?.kind === 'RefValue' && value.refId != null
+                  ? value.refId
+                  : null;
+              if (refId !== null) {
+                /*
+                 * Record an error suggesting the `if (ref.current == null)` pattern,
+                 * but also record the lvalue as a guard so that we don't emit a second
+                 * error for the write to the ref
+                 */
+                env.set(instr.lvalue.identifier.id, {kind: 'Guard', refId});
+                errors.pushDiagnostic(
+                  CompilerDiagnostic.create({
+                    category: ErrorCategory.Refs,
+                    reason: 'Cannot access refs during render',
+                    description: ERROR_DESCRIPTION,
+                  })
+                    .withDetails({
+                      kind: 'error',
+                      loc: instr.value.value.loc,
+                      message: `Cannot access ref value during render`,
+                    })
+                    .withDetails({
+                      kind: 'hint',
+                      message:
+                        'To initialize a ref only once, check that the ref is null with the pattern `if (ref.current == null) { ref.current = ... }`',
+                    }),
+                );
+                break;
+              }
+            }
+            validateNoRefValueAccess(errors, env, instr.value.value);
+            break;
+          }
           case 'BinaryExpression': {
             const left = env.get(instr.value.left.identifier.id);
             const right = env.get(instr.value.right.identifier.id);
diff --git a/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/allow-ref-initialization-undefined.expect.md b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/allow-ref-initialization-undefined.expect.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..c355819320af
--- /dev/null
+++ b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/allow-ref-initialization-undefined.expect.md
@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+
+## Input
+
+```javascript
+//@flow
+import {useRef} from 'react';
+
+component C() {
+  const r = useRef(null);
+  if (r.current == undefined) {
+    r.current = 1;
+  }
+}
+
+export const FIXTURE_ENTRYPOINT = {
+  fn: C,
+  params: [{}],
+};
+
+```
+
+## Code
+
+```javascript
+import { useRef } from "react";
+
+function C() {
+  const r = useRef(null);
+  if (r.current == undefined) {
+    r.current = 1;
+  }
+}
+
+export const FIXTURE_ENTRYPOINT = {
+  fn: C,
+  params: [{}],
+};
+
+```
+      
+### Eval output
+(kind: ok) 
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/allow-ref-initialization-undefined.js b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/allow-ref-initialization-undefined.js
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..886f025287bb
--- /dev/null
+++ b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/allow-ref-initialization-undefined.js
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+//@flow
+import {useRef} from 'react';
+
+component C() {
+  const r = useRef(null);
+  if (r.current == undefined) {
+    r.current = 1;
+  }
+}
+
+export const FIXTURE_ENTRYPOINT = {
+  fn: C,
+  params: [{}],
+};
diff --git a/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/error.invalid-ref-access-render-unary.expect.md b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/error.invalid-ref-access-render-unary.expect.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..ce1be800a13b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/error.invalid-ref-access-render-unary.expect.md
@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
+
+## Input
+
+```javascript
+//@flow
+import {useRef} from 'react';
+
+component C() {
+  const r = useRef(null);
+  const current = !r.current;
+  return <div>{current}</div>;
+}
+
+export const FIXTURE_ENTRYPOINT = {
+  fn: C,
+  params: [{}],
+};
+
+```
+
+
+## Error
+
+```
+Found 4 errors:
+
+Error: Cannot access refs during render
+
+React refs are values that are not needed for rendering. Refs should only be accessed outside of render, such as in event handlers or effects. Accessing a ref value (the `current` property) during render can cause your component not to update as expected (https://react.dev/reference/react/useRef).
+
+  4 | component C() {
+  5 |   const r = useRef(null);
+> 6 |   const current = !r.current;
+    |                    ^^^^^^^^^ Cannot access ref value during render
+  7 |   return <div>{current}</div>;
+  8 | }
+  9 |
+
+To initialize a ref only once, check that the ref is null with the pattern `if (ref.current == null) { ref.current = ... }`
+
+Error: Cannot access refs during render
+
+React refs are values that are not needed for rendering. Refs should only be accessed outside of render, such as in event handlers or effects. Accessing a ref value (the `current` property) during render can cause your component not to update as expected (https://react.dev/reference/react/useRef).
+
+  4 | component C() {
+  5 |   const r = useRef(null);
+> 6 |   const current = !r.current;
+    |                   ^^^^^^^^^^ Cannot access ref value during render
+  7 |   return <div>{current}</div>;
+  8 | }
+  9 |
+
+Error: Cannot access refs during render
+
+React refs are values that are not needed for rendering. Refs should only be accessed outside of render, such as in event handlers or effects. Accessing a ref value (the `current` property) during render can cause your component not to update as expected (https://react.dev/reference/react/useRef).
+
+   5 |   const r = useRef(null);
+   6 |   const current = !r.current;
+>  7 |   return <div>{current}</div>;
+     |                ^^^^^^^ Cannot access ref value during render
+   8 | }
+   9 |
+  10 | export const FIXTURE_ENTRYPOINT = {
+
+Error: Cannot access refs during render
+
+React refs are values that are not needed for rendering. Refs should only be accessed outside of render, such as in event handlers or effects. Accessing a ref value (the `current` property) during render can cause your component not to update as expected (https://react.dev/reference/react/useRef).
+
+   5 |   const r = useRef(null);
+   6 |   const current = !r.current;
+>  7 |   return <div>{current}</div>;
+     |                ^^^^^^^ Cannot access ref value during render
+   8 | }
+   9 |
+  10 | export const FIXTURE_ENTRYPOINT = {
+```
+          
+      
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/error.invalid-ref-access-render-unary.js b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/error.invalid-ref-access-render-unary.js
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..8d99008f805b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/error.invalid-ref-access-render-unary.js
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+//@flow
+import {useRef} from 'react';
+
+component C() {
+  const r = useRef(null);
+  const current = !r.current;
+  return <div>{current}</div>;
+}
+
+export const FIXTURE_ENTRYPOINT = {
+  fn: C,
+  params: [{}],
+};
diff --git a/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/error.invalid-ref-initialization-unary-not.expect.md b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/error.invalid-ref-initialization-unary-not.expect.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..516d006c205a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/error.invalid-ref-initialization-unary-not.expect.md
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+
+## Input
+
+```javascript
+//@flow
+import {useRef} from 'react';
+
+component C() {
+  const r = useRef(null);
+  if (!r.current) {
+    r.current = 1;
+  }
+}
+
+export const FIXTURE_ENTRYPOINT = {
+  fn: C,
+  params: [{}],
+};
+
+```
+
+
+## Error
+
+```
+Found 1 error:
+
+Error: Cannot access refs during render
+
+React refs are values that are not needed for rendering. Refs should only be accessed outside of render, such as in event handlers or effects. Accessing a ref value (the `current` property) during render can cause your component not to update as expected (https://react.dev/reference/react/useRef).
+
+  4 | component C() {
+  5 |   const r = useRef(null);
+> 6 |   if (!r.current) {
+    |        ^^^^^^^^^ Cannot access ref value during render
+  7 |     r.current = 1;
+  8 |   }
+  9 | }
+
+To initialize a ref only once, check that the ref is null with the pattern `if (ref.current == null) { ref.current = ... }`
+```
+          
+      
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/error.invalid-ref-initialization-unary-not.js b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/error.invalid-ref-initialization-unary-not.js
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..b9b5d41295cd
--- /dev/null
+++ b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/error.invalid-ref-initialization-unary-not.js
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+//@flow
+import {useRef} from 'react';
+
+component C() {
+  const r = useRef(null);
+  if (!r.current) {
+    r.current = 1;
+  }
+}
+
+export const FIXTURE_ENTRYPOINT = {
+  fn: C,
+  params: [{}],
+};
diff --git a/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/repro-dispatch-spread-event-marks-event-frozen.expect.md b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/repro-dispatch-spread-event-marks-event-frozen.expect.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..699140137ac2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/repro-dispatch-spread-event-marks-event-frozen.expect.md
@@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
+
+## Input
+
+```javascript
+// @compilationMode:"infer"
+function Component() {
+  const dispatch = useDispatch();
+  // const [state, setState] = useState(0);
+
+  return (
+    <div>
+      <input
+        type="file"
+        onChange={event => {
+          dispatch(...event.target);
+          event.target.value = '';
+        }}
+      />
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+function useDispatch() {
+  'use no memo';
+  // skip compilation to make it easier to debug the above function
+  return (...values) => {
+    console.log(...values);
+  };
+}
+
+export const FIXTURE_ENTRYPOINT = {
+  fn: Component,
+  params: [{}],
+};
+
+```
+
+## Code
+
+```javascript
+import { c as _c } from "react/compiler-runtime"; // @compilationMode:"infer"
+function Component() {
+  const $ = _c(2);
+  const dispatch = useDispatch();
+  let t0;
+  if ($[0] !== dispatch) {
+    t0 = (
+      <div>
+        <input
+          type="file"
+          onChange={(event) => {
+            dispatch(...event.target);
+            event.target.value = "";
+          }}
+        />
+      </div>
+    );
+    $[0] = dispatch;
+    $[1] = t0;
+  } else {
+    t0 = $[1];
+  }
+  return t0;
+}
+
+function useDispatch() {
+  "use no memo";
+  // skip compilation to make it easier to debug the above function
+  return (...values) => {
+    console.log(...values);
+  };
+}
+
+export const FIXTURE_ENTRYPOINT = {
+  fn: Component,
+  params: [{}],
+};
+
+```
+      
+### Eval output
+(kind: ok) <div><input type="file"></div>
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/repro-dispatch-spread-event-marks-event-frozen.js b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/repro-dispatch-spread-event-marks-event-frozen.js
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..386729e40789
--- /dev/null
+++ b/compiler/packages/babel-plugin-react-compiler/src/__tests__/fixtures/compiler/repro-dispatch-spread-event-marks-event-frozen.js
@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+// @compilationMode:"infer"
+function Component() {
+  const dispatch = useDispatch();
+  // const [state, setState] = useState(0);
+
+  return (
+    <div>
+      <input
+        type="file"
+        onChange={event => {
+          dispatch(...event.target);
+          event.target.value = '';
+        }}
+      />
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+function useDispatch() {
+  'use no memo';
+  // skip compilation to make it easier to debug the above function
+  return (...values) => {
+    console.log(...values);
+  };
+}
+
+export const FIXTURE_ENTRYPOINT = {
+  fn: Component,
+  params: [{}],
+};