[prompt-analysis] Copilot PR Prompt Analysis - 2026-04-02

[github-actions[bot]]

Summary

Analysis Period: Last 30 days
Total PRs: 1,000 | Merged: 823 (82.5%) | Closed: 174 (17.4%) | Open: 3 (0.3%)

Overall, Copilot PRs maintain a strong merge rate. The single biggest predictor of failure is the [WIP] prefix in the title — those PRs close unmerged 84.5% of the time.

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Prompt Categories and Success Rates

Category	Total	Merged	Success Rate
Refactor	234	198	84.6%
Docs	649	540	83.2%
Tests	711	586	82.8%
Bug Fix	771	637	82.8%
Feature	745	611	82.3%
Update/Upgrade	357	280	78.4%

Note: PRs often match multiple categories, so totals exceed 1,000.

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Prompt Title Prefix Analysis

Conventional commit-style prefixes strongly correlate with merge success:

Prefix	Total	Merged	Success Rate
perf:	10	10	100.0%
ci:	5	5	100.0%
docs:	48	45	93.8%
fix:	299	267	89.6%
refactor:	41	36	87.8%
chore:	28	24	85.7%
feat:	93	77	83.7%
(no prefix)	474	358	75.7%
[WIP] prefix	58	9	15.5% ❌

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✅ Successful Prompt Patterns

Common characteristics in merged PRs:

• Average prompt body length: ~1,429 words
• Most used action verbs: test, check, add, use, update, create, fix
• Use of conventional commit prefixes (fix:, feat:, docs:, refactor:, perf:, ci:)
• Structured PR bodies with Problem / Summary / Solution sections

Example merged PRs:

1. PR fix: events.jsonl not collected — copy step uses flat glob, misses session subdirectories #23992 — fix: events.jsonl not collected — copy step uses flat glob, misses session subdirectories → Merged
2. PR feat: Add conditional workspace checkout to detection job for patch context #23961 — feat: Add conditional workspace checkout to detection job for patch context → Merged
3. PR feat: bump firewall to v0.25.8 and surface token-usage.jsonl #23943 — feat: bump firewall to v0.25.8 and surface token-usage.jsonl → Merged

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❌ Unsuccessful Prompt Patterns

Common characteristics in closed PRs:

• Average prompt body length: ~1,368 words (slightly shorter)
• [WIP] title prefix: 84.5% close rate
• Generic "update" tasks without specific scope
• Boilerplate bodies starting with "Thanks for asking me to work on this..." (no specific plan yet)

Example closed PRs:

1. PR [WIP] Split audit_report_render.go into domain-focused render files #24016 — [WIP] Split audit_report_render.go into domain-focused render files → Closed
2. PR [WIP] Update Playwright Browser from v1.59.0 to v1.59.1 #24012 — [WIP] Update Playwright Browser from v1.59.0 to v1.59.1 → Closed
3. PR [WIP] Split gateway_logs.go into focused files #24004 — [WIP] Split gateway_logs.go into focused files → Closed

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Key Insights

• [WIP] = almost certain closure: 58 PRs marked [WIP] had only a 15.5% merge rate (9 merged, 49 closed). These are clearly in-progress drafts that don't reach completion.
• Conventional commit prefixes matter: PRs using fix:, feat:, docs: etc. achieve 89%+ success rates vs 75.7% for unprefixed titles — a 14-point gap. This suggests well-scoped, properly named tasks complete successfully.
• Prompt length doesn't significantly predict outcome: Merged (1,429 words) and closed (1,368 words) prompts are nearly the same length. Quality and specificity matter more than length.
• update/upgrade tasks underperform: The "update" category is the weakest at 78.4%, possibly because version bumps or dependency updates encounter compatibility issues.

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Recommendations

1. DO: Use conventional commit-style prefixes (fix:, feat:, docs:, perf:, refactor:) — they improve success rates by 10-14 points
2. DO: Write specific, scoped prompts that clearly name the file, function, or problem being addressed
3. DO: Include structured context in the PR body (Problem, Approach, Expected Outcome)
4. AVOID: Creating [WIP] PRs — they have an 84.5% closure rate and should be replaced with draft PRs or more focused tasks
5. AVOID: Generic "update" or "upgrade" tasks without specifying exact scope and testing strategy

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Historical Trends

Date	PRs	Success Rate	WIP Rate
2026-04-01	1,000	83.5%	—
2026-04-02	1,000	82.5%	15.5%

Trend: Overall success rate is stable (~82-84%). The WIP success rate is consistently low, confirming this is a persistent pattern rather than a one-off anomaly.

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References:

• §23884526988

AI generated by Copilot PR Prompt Pattern Analysis · history

• expires on Apr 3, 2026, 4:58 AM UTC

[github-actions[bot]]

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[github-actions[bot]]

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[github-actions[bot]]

This discussion has been marked as outdated by Copilot PR Prompt Pattern Analysis.

A newer discussion is available at Discussion #24234.