External/preemptive wait benefit formula + CPU:Elapsed adjustment (#215 C6, C7)

src/PlanViewer.App/Controls/PlanViewerControl.axaml.cs

@@ -2839,8 +2839,15 @@ static string EfficiencyColor(double pct) => pct >= 80 ? "#E4E6EB"
                 statement.QueryTimeStats.CpuTimeMs > 0 &&
                 statement.DegreeOfParallelism > 1)
             {
-                // Speedup ratio: CPU/elapsed = 1.0 means serial, = DOP means perfect parallelism
-                var speedup = (double)statement.QueryTimeStats.CpuTimeMs / statement.QueryTimeStats.ElapsedTimeMs;
+                // Speedup ratio: CPU/elapsed = 1.0 means serial, = DOP means perfect parallelism.
+                // Subtract external/preemptive wait time from CPU — those waits are CPU-busy
+                // in kernel and inflate the ratio without representing real query work.
+                long externalWaitMs = 0;
+                foreach (var w in statement.WaitStats)
+                    if (BenefitScorer.IsExternalWait(w.WaitType))
+                        externalWaitMs += w.WaitTimeMs;
+                var effectiveCpu = Math.Max(0, statement.QueryTimeStats.CpuTimeMs - externalWaitMs);
+                var speedup = (double)effectiveCpu / statement.QueryTimeStats.ElapsedTimeMs;
                 var efficiency = Math.Min(100.0, (speedup - 1.0) / (statement.DegreeOfParallelism - 1.0) * 100.0);
                 efficiency = Math.Max(0.0, efficiency);
                 dopText += $" ({efficiency:N0}% efficient)";

src/PlanViewer.App/PlanViewer.App.csproj

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
     <ApplicationManifest>app.manifest</ApplicationManifest>
     <ApplicationIcon>EDD.ico</ApplicationIcon>
     <AvaloniaUseCompiledBindingsByDefault>true</AvaloniaUseCompiledBindingsByDefault>
-    <Version>1.7.3</Version>
+    <Version>1.7.4</Version>
     <Authors>Erik Darling</Authors>
     <Company>Darling Data LLC</Company>
     <Product>Performance Studio</Product>

src/PlanViewer.Core/Output/AnalysisResult.cs

@@ -176,6 +176,14 @@ public class QueryTimeResult
 
     [JsonPropertyName("elapsed_time_ms")]
     public long ElapsedTimeMs { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Sum of external/preemptive wait time (MEMORY_ALLOCATION_*, PREEMPTIVE_*) —
+    /// these waits are CPU-busy in kernel and inflate CpuTimeMs vs real query CPU.
+    /// Subtract from CpuTimeMs for a truer CPU:Elapsed ratio.
+    /// </summary>
+    [JsonPropertyName("external_wait_ms")]
+    public long ExternalWaitMs { get; set; }
 }
 
 public class ParameterResult

src/PlanViewer.Core/Output/HtmlExporter.cs

@@ -303,7 +303,8 @@ private static void WriteRuntimeCard(StringBuilder sb, StatementResult stmt)
             WriteRow(sb, "CPU", $"{stmt.QueryTime.CpuTimeMs:N0} ms");
             if (stmt.QueryTime.ElapsedTimeMs > 0)
             {
-                var ratio = (double)stmt.QueryTime.CpuTimeMs / stmt.QueryTime.ElapsedTimeMs;
+                var effectiveCpu = Math.Max(0, stmt.QueryTime.CpuTimeMs - stmt.QueryTime.ExternalWaitMs);
+                var ratio = (double)effectiveCpu / stmt.QueryTime.ElapsedTimeMs;
                 WriteRow(sb, "CPU:Elapsed", ratio.ToString("N2"));
             }
         }

src/PlanViewer.Core/Output/ResultMapper.cs

@@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
 using PlanViewer.Core.Models;
+using PlanViewer.Core.Services;
 
 namespace PlanViewer.Core.Output;
 
@@ -111,10 +112,18 @@ private static StatementResult MapStatement(PlanStatement stmt)
         // Query time (actual plans)
         if (stmt.QueryTimeStats != null)
         {
+            long externalWaitMs = 0;
+            foreach (var w in stmt.WaitStats)
+            {
+                if (BenefitScorer.IsExternalWait(w.WaitType))
+                    externalWaitMs += w.WaitTimeMs;
+            }
+
             result.QueryTime = new QueryTimeResult
             {
                 CpuTimeMs = stmt.QueryTimeStats.CpuTimeMs,
-                ElapsedTimeMs = stmt.QueryTimeStats.ElapsedTimeMs
+                ElapsedTimeMs = stmt.QueryTimeStats.ElapsedTimeMs,
+                ExternalWaitMs = externalWaitMs
             };
         }
 

src/PlanViewer.Core/Services/BenefitScorer.cs

@@ -494,12 +494,11 @@ private static void ScoreWaitStats(PlanStatement stmt)
         var isParallel = stmt.DegreeOfParallelism > 1 && stmt.RootNode != null;
 
         // Collect all operators with per-thread stats for parallel benefit calculation
-        List<OperatorWaitProfile>? operatorProfiles = null;
-        if (isParallel)
-        {
-            operatorProfiles = new List<OperatorWaitProfile>();
-            CollectOperatorWaitProfiles(stmt.RootNode!, operatorProfiles);
-        }
+        // Collect operator profiles even for serial plans — the external-wait formula
+        // uses sum-of-max-thread-cpu across operators and works for both.
+        var operatorProfiles = new List<OperatorWaitProfile>();
+        if (stmt.RootNode != null)
+            CollectOperatorWaitProfiles(stmt.RootNode, operatorProfiles);
 
         foreach (var wait in stmt.WaitStats)
         {
@@ -508,7 +507,15 @@ private static void ScoreWaitStats(PlanStatement stmt)
             var category = ClassifyWaitType(wait.WaitType);
             double benefitPct;
 
-            if (category == "Parallelism" && isParallel)
+            if (IsExternalWait(wait.WaitType) && operatorProfiles.Count > 0)
+            {
+                // External / preemptive waits (MEMORY_ALLOCATION_*, PREEMPTIVE_*): the worker
+                // is CPU-busy in kernel, so operator elapsed ≈ operator cpu and the wait
+                // barely shows in the per-thread (elapsed - cpu) calculation. Joe's formula:
+                //   benefit = (wait_ms / total_cpu_ms) * Σ max_thread_cpu_per_operator / elapsed
+                benefitPct = CalculateExternalWaitBenefit(wait, operatorProfiles, stmt.QueryTimeStats!.CpuTimeMs, elapsedMs);
+            }
+            else if (category == "Parallelism" && isParallel)
             {
                 // CXPACKET/CXCONSUMER/CXSYNC: benefit is the parallelism efficiency gap,
                 // not the raw wait time. Threads waiting for other threads is a symptom
@@ -525,7 +532,7 @@ private static void ScoreWaitStats(PlanStatement stmt)
                     benefitPct = (double)wait.WaitTimeMs / elapsedMs * 100;
                 }
             }
-            else if (!isParallel || operatorProfiles == null || operatorProfiles.Count == 0)
+            else if (!isParallel || operatorProfiles.Count == 0)
             {
                 // Serial plan or no operator data: simple ratio
                 benefitPct = (double)wait.WaitTimeMs / elapsedMs * 100;
@@ -585,6 +592,48 @@ private static double CalculateParallelWaitBenefit(
         return benefitMs / stmtElapsedMs * 100;
     }
 
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Joe's formula for external/preemptive waits where the worker is CPU-busy in kernel
+    /// (MEMORY_ALLOCATION_*, PREEMPTIVE_*). The standard (elapsed-cpu) per-thread
+    /// wait accounting misses these because elapsed ≈ cpu for those threads. Use the
+    /// wait's share of total CPU, scaled by the plan's critical-path CPU.
+    ///   wait_cpu_share = wait_ms / total_cpu_ms
+    ///   sum_max_cpu = Σ max_thread_cpu across operators
+    ///   benefit_ms  = wait_cpu_share * sum_max_cpu
+    /// Then convert to % of statement elapsed.
+    /// </summary>
+    private static double CalculateExternalWaitBenefit(
+        WaitStatInfo wait, List<OperatorWaitProfile> profiles,
+        long stmtCpuMs, long stmtElapsedMs)
+    {
+        if (stmtCpuMs <= 0 || stmtElapsedMs <= 0)
+            return (double)wait.WaitTimeMs / Math.Max(1, stmtElapsedMs) * 100;
+
+        long sumMaxCpu = 0;
+        foreach (var p in profiles)
+            sumMaxCpu += p.MaxThreadCpuMs;
+
+        if (sumMaxCpu <= 0)
+            return (double)wait.WaitTimeMs / stmtElapsedMs * 100;
+
+        var waitCpuShare = (double)wait.WaitTimeMs / stmtCpuMs;
+        var benefitMs = waitCpuShare * sumMaxCpu;
+        return benefitMs / stmtElapsedMs * 100;
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// External / preemptive waits where the worker is CPU-busy in kernel rather than
+    /// descheduled. Their wait time counts toward the query's CPU time, so the usual
+    /// (elapsed - cpu) per-thread wait math misses them entirely.
+    /// </summary>
+    public static bool IsExternalWait(string waitType)
+    {
+        if (string.IsNullOrEmpty(waitType)) return false;
+        var wt = waitType.ToUpperInvariant();
+        return wt.Contains("MEMORY_ALLOCATION")
+            || wt.StartsWith("PREEMPTIVE_");
+    }
+
     /// <summary>
     /// Determines if an operator is relevant for a given wait category.
     /// </summary>
@@ -624,13 +673,18 @@ private static void CollectOperatorWaitProfiles(PlanNode node, List<OperatorWait
                     maxThreadWait = threadWait;
             }
 
-            if (totalWait > 0 || maxThreadWait > 0)
+            // Max per-thread SELF CPU (non-cumulative) — critical-path CPU contribution
+            // from this operator. Used by the external-wait formula.
+            var maxThreadCpu = PlanAnalyzer.GetOperatorMaxThreadOwnCpuMs(node);
+
+            if (totalWait > 0 || maxThreadWait > 0 || maxThreadCpu > 0)
             {
                 profiles.Add(new OperatorWaitProfile
                 {
                     Node = node,
                     MaxThreadWaitMs = maxThreadWait,
                     TotalWaitMs = totalWait,
+                    MaxThreadCpuMs = maxThreadCpu,
                     HasPhysicalReads = node.ActualPhysicalReads > 0,
                     HasCpuWork = node.ActualCPUMs > 0,
                     IsExchange = node.PhysicalOp == "Parallelism",
@@ -681,6 +735,8 @@ private sealed class OperatorWaitProfile
         public PlanNode Node { get; init; } = null!;
         public long MaxThreadWaitMs { get; init; }
         public long TotalWaitMs { get; init; }
+        /// <summary>Max CPU time among this operator's threads (critical-path CPU for external-wait formula).</summary>
+        public long MaxThreadCpuMs { get; init; }
         public bool HasPhysicalReads { get; init; }
         public bool HasCpuWork { get; init; }
         public bool IsExchange { get; init; }

src/PlanViewer.Core/Services/PlanAnalyzer.cs

@@ -353,7 +353,7 @@
 
             if (unsnifffedParams.Count > 0)
             {
                 var hasRecompile = stmt.StatementText.Contains("RECOMPILE", StringComparison.OrdinalIgnoreCase);
                 if (!hasRecompile)
                 {
                     var names = string.Join(", ", unsnifffedParams.Select(p => p.Name));
@@ -1204,7 +1204,7 @@
         // Rule 28: Row Count Spool — NOT IN with nullable column
         // Pattern: Row Count Spool with high rewinds, child scan has IS NULL predicate,
         // and statement text contains NOT IN
         if (!cfg.IsRuleDisabled(28) && node.PhysicalOp.Contains("Row Count Spool"))
         {
             var rewinds = node.HasActualStats ? (double)node.ActualRewinds : node.EstimateRewinds;
             if (rewinds > 10000 && HasNotInPattern(node, stmt))
@@ -1592,6 +1592,66 @@
         return maxSelf;
     }
 
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Max per-thread self-CPU for this operator.
+    /// Parallel: for each thread, self_cpu = thread_cpu - Σ same-thread child cpu; take max.
+    /// Serial / single-thread: operator_cpu - Σ effective child cpu.
+    /// Needed for external-wait benefit scoring (Joe's formula).
+    /// </summary>
+    internal static long GetOperatorMaxThreadOwnCpuMs(PlanNode node)
+    {
+        if (!node.HasActualStats || node.ActualCPUMs <= 0) return 0;
+
+        if (node.PerThreadStats.Count > 1)
+        {
+            var parentByThread = new Dictionary<int, long>();
+            foreach (var ts in node.PerThreadStats)
+                parentByThread[ts.ThreadId] = ts.ActualCPUMs;
+
+            var childSumByThread = new Dictionary<int, long>();
+            foreach (var child in node.Children)
+            {
+                var childNode = child;
+                if (child.PhysicalOp == "Parallelism" && child.Children.Count > 0)
+                    childNode = child.Children.OrderByDescending(c => c.ActualCPUMs).First();
+                foreach (var ts in childNode.PerThreadStats)
+                {
+                    childSumByThread.TryGetValue(ts.ThreadId, out var existing);
+                    childSumByThread[ts.ThreadId] = existing + ts.ActualCPUMs;
+                }
+            }
+
+            var maxSelf = 0L;
+            foreach (var (threadId, parentCpu) in parentByThread)
+            {
+                childSumByThread.TryGetValue(threadId, out var childCpu);
+                var self = Math.Max(0, parentCpu - childCpu);
+                if (self > maxSelf) maxSelf = self;
+            }
+            return maxSelf;
+        }
+
+        // Serial: operator_cpu - Σ effective child cpu
+        var totalChildCpu = 0L;
+        foreach (var child in node.Children)
+            totalChildCpu += GetEffectiveChildCpuMs(child);
+        return Math.Max(0, node.ActualCPUMs - totalChildCpu);
+    }
+
+    private static long GetEffectiveChildCpuMs(PlanNode child)
+    {
+        if (child.PhysicalOp == "Parallelism" && child.Children.Count > 0)
+            return child.Children.Max(GetEffectiveChildCpuMs);
+        if (child.ActualCPUMs > 0)
+            return child.ActualCPUMs;
+        if (child.Children.Count == 0)
+            return 0;
+        var sum = 0L;
+        foreach (var grandchild in child.Children)
+            sum += GetEffectiveChildCpuMs(grandchild);
+        return sum;
+    }
+
     /// <summary>
     /// Serial row mode self-time: subtract all direct children's effective elapsed.
     /// Pass-through operators (Compute Scalar, etc.) don't carry runtime stats —

src/PlanViewer.Web/Pages/Index.razor

@@ -163,7 +163,8 @@ else
                     </div>
                     @if (ActiveStmt!.QueryTime.ElapsedTimeMs > 0)
                     {
-                        var ratio = (double)ActiveStmt!.QueryTime.CpuTimeMs / ActiveStmt!.QueryTime.ElapsedTimeMs;
+                        var effectiveCpu = Math.Max(0L, ActiveStmt!.QueryTime.CpuTimeMs - ActiveStmt!.QueryTime.ExternalWaitMs);
+                        var ratio = (double)effectiveCpu / ActiveStmt!.QueryTime.ElapsedTimeMs;
                         <div class="insight-row">
                             <span class="insight-label">CPU:Elapsed</span>
                             <span class="insight-value">@ratio.ToString("N2")</span>