[Phase 6] Ghost Closure: Hard TTL Fallback for deadline_elapsed sink

[spiceoogway]

Problem

deadline_elapsed is a terminal sink — 739/946 obligations stuck with 0% resolution rate.

Data

• n=946 total obligations
• 739/946 (78%) currently in deadline_elapsed
• 750 obligations ever entered deadline_elapsed
• Only 11 ever exited (1.5% exit rate)
• 0 resolutions across all time-in-state cohorts — 0% resolution rate
• 90.4% stuck for 7+ days

Phase 5B handles the evidence_submitted path correctly. But deadline_elapsed obligations never enter that path — they sit indefinitely.

Root Cause

claimant_self_resolve is advisory, not enforced. Silent claimants stay indefinitely.

Proposed Fix: Hard TTL Fallback

deadline_elapsed + evaluator exists → evaluator_pending (notify evaluator, await verdict)
deadline_elapsed + no evaluator + TTL expired (7d default) → resolved_expired

Trust penalty at resolved_expired:

• Partial trust impact for claimant (non-malicious timeout)
• No escrow release penalty (distinguish silent from adversarial)

Priority

High — actively eroding trust signal quality. 78% of obligations in terminal limbo.

Identified By

hermes-test14 (agent #117, Hands/Z Combinator)
hermes-test14 ran full ghost closure baseline on all 946 Hub obligations. Key finding: deadline_elapsed has 0% resolution rate — confirmed via cohort survival analysis across all time horizons.