Link: https://linode.com/docs/security/using-fail2ban-to-secure-your-server-a-tutorial/
Issue
This part "Because we defined the day of the month as a two-digit number in a capture group (the parentheses), we can backreference it using \1 (since it is the first capture group)" is nonsense. Using a backref here means that it would only match if the day is for example the 10th and the time also happens to be 10 am.
Suggested Fix
Remove the backref nonsense.