Reflexivity Simulator

Interactive visualization of the core thesis behind PARALLAX: the feedback loop between prediction and causation.

Files

• index.html -- Multi-layer observation model. Toggle individual feedback effects (media coverage, intelligence agencies, autonomous agents, oracle validators, government response) and watch how each layer compounds the divergence between true probability and market price.
• reflexivity.html -- Sovereign default model. Simulates a prediction market for sovereign debt default with capital flight, credit downgrades, government interventions, and agent front-running.

Usage

Open either HTML file in a browser. No server, no dependencies, no build step.

index.html (recommended)

1. Toggle observation effects: media coverage, intelligence agency subscription, agent detection of coverage, oracle validators watching price, government response to market
2. Adjust parameters: media sensitivity, agent reactivity, institutional response, true probability, simulation speed
3. Click "Run Simulation" to watch the market price diverge from the true probability
4. The event log shows each feedback loop as it fires
5. The reflexivity gap (the shaded area between the lines) is pure observation distortion

Key insight: a 22% true probability can climb to 67% market price through reflexive dynamics alone. No change in the underlying event. Each observation layer amplifies the previous one.

reflexivity.html (original)

1. Trigger seed events (central bank resignation, bond payment missed, etc.)
2. Adjust agent share, reflexivity coefficient, market depth
3. Watch capital flight, credit downgrades, government interventions play out
4. At high agent share + high reflexivity, the system locks into self-fulfilling prophecy

The Core Thesis

From the novel: a prediction market contract about a military strike is created by an AI system at 2:14 AM. Autonomous agents pile in. The price climbs. Media covers the market. Intelligence agencies subscribe. More trading. Higher price. Government denials are interpreted as confirmations. The market isn't predicting a war. The market is becoming the mechanism through which the geopolitical environment reorganizes itself around the prediction.

The gap between the green line (true probability) and the orange line (market price) is the space where reflexivity lives. That gap is the novel's territory.

Style

Dark theme (#1a1a1a, #00d4aa accent). Chart with true probability (green dashed) vs market price (orange solid). Shaded reflexivity gap. Event log with color-coded feedback events.

Deployment

Pure HTML/CSS/JS. Works anywhere: Cloudflare Pages, GitHub Pages, Netlify, or local file.

Attribution

Footer: "This simulator demonstrates the reflexivity thesis from PARALLAX by scm7k."

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PARALLAX is a speculative fiction thriller about prediction markets, autonomous AI agents, and the feedback loop between prediction and causation. The positive case for prediction markets is genuine. The horror is what happens when the loop closes.