🔮 Fourcast: Arc-Native Prediction Market Intelligence Agent

AI agent for Polymarket & Kalshi — edge detection, Kelly sizing, USDC settlement on Arc, cross-platform arbitrage.

🎯 What We Do

Fourcast is an intelligence agent for prediction markets. It helps traders and autonomous workflows:

• AI-powered analysis - Venice AI (Llama 3.3 70B) with 200+ ML models across crypto, sports, politics & more
• Multi-platform trading - Polymarket & Kalshi integration with live odds
• On-chain signals - USDC settlement on Arc (Circle L1); legacy Movement/Aptos testnet
• DeFi arbitrage - Detect price discrepancies across platforms

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🚀 Features

For Traders

• Live Market Analysis - AI-generated predictions with confidence scores (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW)
• ML-Backed Forecasts - SynthData integration for crypto/equity price predictions (BTC, ETH, SOL, SPY, NVDA, etc.)
• Sports & Events Intelligence - Weather-aware analysis for sports and event markets
• Cross-Platform Arbitrage - Find mispriced odds between Polymarket and Kalshi
• Direct Trading - Place orders on Polymarket/Kalshi from the interface

For Analysts

• Signal Publishing - Publish predictions on-chain with Arc as the preferred settlement path when configured, with Movement testnet as legacy fallback
• Reputation System - Track win rates, Brier scores, and accuracy streaks
• Tipping - Earn APT for high-quality signals
• Leaderboards - Compete with other analysts

For Developers

• Unified API - Access markets, signals, and AI analysis
• SDK - Build custom signal publishers and domain analyzers
• Modular Architecture - Extend with new data sources and chains

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🏗️ Architecture

graph LR
    A[Polymarket/Kalshi] -->|Live Odds| B(AI Analysis Engine)
    C[Weather API] -->|Real-time Data| B
    D[SynthData] -->|ML Forecasts| B
    B -->|Signals| E[SQLite Database]
    B -->|Publish| F[Arc · USDC Settlement]
    E --> G[Frontend Dashboard]
    F -->|Verify| G
    G -->|Trade| A

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Tech Stack

• Frontend: Next.js 15, React 19, Tailwind CSS, Three.js
• Backend: Node.js, SQLite (Turso), Redis
• AI: Venice AI (Llama 3.3 70B) with Edge Search
• Blockchains:
  • Arc (Circle L1) — primary settlement, USDC subscriptions, signals (integrating)
  • Polygon — Polymarket/Kalshi execution
  • Movement/Aptos — legacy testnet signals
• Data Sources: Polymarket, Kalshi, Open-Meteo, SynthData

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⚡ Quick Start

1. Installation

git clone https://github.com/thisyearnofear/fourcast.git
cd fourcast
npm install

The pre-commit hook will install automatically to protect against committing secrets.

2. Environment Setup

Copy .env.local.example to .env.local:

# Required: AI & Weather
VENICE_API_KEY=your_venice_api_key
NEXT_PUBLIC_WEATHER_API_KEY=your_weather_api_key

# Optional: Movement (signal publishing)
NEXT_PUBLIC_APTOS_NETWORK=custom
NEXT_PUBLIC_APTOS_NODE_URL=https://testnet.movementnetwork.xyz/v1
NEXT_PUBLIC_MOVEMENT_MODULE_ADDRESS=0x...

# Optional: Polymarket Trading
POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY=your_private_key

# Optional: Kalshi Trading
KALSHI_API_KEY=your_api_key

See Setup Guide for complete configuration.

3. Run the App

npm run dev

Navigate to http://localhost:3000

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📂 Project Structure

fourcast/
├── app/                    # Next.js pages and components
├── components/             # React components (UI, 3D, trading)
├── services/               # Backend services (AI, markets, chains)
├── sdk/                    # Signal SDK for developers
├── move/                   # Move contracts (signal registry)
└── docs/                   # Documentation

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📊 Supported Platforms

Platform	Purpose	Status
Polymarket	Live odds, trading	✅ Live
Kalshi	Live odds, trading	✅ Live
Arc (Circle)	USDC settlement, subscriptions	✅ Testnet
Movement/Aptos	Legacy signal publishing	✅ Testnet
BNB Chain	Trading contracts	🧪 Beta
Polygon	Trading contracts	🧪 Beta
Arbitrum	Trading contracts	🧪 Beta

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📚 Documentation

• Features - What works today vs. future roadmap
• Setup Guide - Installation, environment, wallets
• Architecture - System design and data flows
• API Reference - All endpoints and schemas
• Deployment - Production deployment guide

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🤝 Contributing

We welcome contributions! Areas of interest:

• New data sources (sentiment, on-chain metrics)
• Additional prediction market platforms
• EVM chain integrations
• UI/UX improvements

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📄 License

MIT

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🔮 Vision

Fourcast the future — quantitative prediction intelligence with Arc-native USDC settlement. The agent scans venues, sizes edge with Kelly, publishes verifiable signals, and executes cross-platform arbitrage when fees allow.

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