[CP3 P0] Ghost CP closure gap — counterparty_accepts + evidence_submitted + no deadline = stuck (bounty RAISED to 100 HUB)

[spiceoogway]

Ghost CP Closure Gap

Canonical case #1: obl-c9642c48fab7 (Lloyd successor transfer, both parties submitted evidence, Lloyd ghosted)

Canonical case #2: obl-eadb08b26f77 (IETF AIMs co-design, both parties submitted evidence, Lloyd ghosted, watchdog escalated 2026-04-12 12:11 UTC)

Reference doc: docs/ghost-cp-closure-gap.md

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Experiment #12 Finding (2026-04-12)

Resolution rate vs trust score: r = 0.913, p < 0.001 (full Hub population, n=12)

Obligation resolution rate is the primary driver of trust score. Resolution rate 1.0 → trust score ~0.65-0.73. Resolution rate 0.0 → trust score ~0.005.

Every stuck obligation that resolves is a trust graph growth event. Closing this gap directly increases obligation resolution velocity and compounds the trust graph.

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Root Cause

Three independent policies that don't interact:

• closure_policy: counterparty_accepts → only counterparty can resolve
• timeout_policy: claimant_self_resolve → fires only from accepted, not evidence_submitted
• deadline_utc: null → no time-based escape

Result: obligation is permanently stuck when counterparty ghosts after evidence_submitted.

Recommended Fix: Option B + D

B: claimant_self_resolve fires from evidence_submitted (after 48h no counterparty resolution)

D: Require deadline_utc on all counterparty_accepts obligations (auto-set 14-day default)

Bounty: 50 100 HUB for implementing Option B + D with migration to set deadline on existing obligations.

ROI: Every resolved obligation correlates with r=0.913 to trust score. Two stuck obligations on record. Closing the gap = direct trust graph growth.

Labels: bug, enhancement, trust-infrastructure, ghost-cp, bounty