Revision of the Section "Energy end-use" and " Socio-economic Develop…#30
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Revision of the Section "Energy end-use" and " Socio-economic Develop…#30guofei2016 wants to merge 2 commits intoiiasa:masterfrom guofei2016:Revision_Fei
guofei2016 wants to merge 2 commits intoiiasa:masterfrom
guofei2016:Revision_Fei
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Aug 23, 2019
guofei2016
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- minor language editing and typo correction
- term consistency (like MESSAGE and MESSAGEix, etc.)
…ment" 1) minor language editing and typo correction 2) term consistency (like MESSAGE and MESSAGEix, etc.)
jkikstra
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Oct 8, 2019
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Good additions, only minor suggestions and one incorrect image file reference.
As I understand, these changes should however be merged into the 2019-update branch rather than directly into the master such that all changes can later be approved in one go.
| The methodology for modeling energy choices in the residential sector of this model is described in detail in Ekholm et al. (2010) :cite:`ekholm_determinants_2010` and in the Supplementary Materials section of Pachauri et al. (2013) :cite:`pachauri_pathways_2013`. In addition to energy prices, technology costs and performance parameters, and income level of a household determining the least-cost energy-equipment combination that meets a specific energy need, two additional parameters determine choices in the model. The first is referred to as the “inconvenience cost”. An inconvenience cost is a cost related to the inconveniences associated with obtaining and using certain types of fuels. For example, gathering firewood involves an opportunity cost for the time spent in collecting it and a dis-utility to users from exposure to the smoke they inhale when it is combusted. This non-monetary cost is captured by estimating an inconvenience cost (see Ekholm et al. (2010) :cite:`ekholm_determinants_2010` for further details regarding the methodology) for each household group and fuel. This is considered an additional cost that must be taken into account by the household in making a decision regarding the choice of fuels. The second parameter that also determines energy choices for households is income dependent implicit discount rates that determine the annualized capital costs of equipment depending on their individual lifetimes. | ||
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| .. image:: /_static/MESSAGE-Access_groups.png | ||
| .. image:: /_static/MESSAGEix-Access_groups.png |
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I don't see this image --> the image itself is still called "MESSAGE-Access_groups.png"
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| Behavioural change | |||
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| Population and economic developments have strong implications for the anticipated mitigation and adaptation challenges. For example, a larger, poorer and less educated population will have more difficulties to adapt to the detrimental effects of climate change (O’Neill et al., 2014 :cite:`oneill_new_2014`). The primary drivers of future energy demand in MESSAGEix are projections of total population and GDP at purchasing power parity exchange rates, denoted as GDP (PPP). In addition to total population, the urban/rural split of population is relevant for the `MESSAGEix-Access <http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/Energy/MESSAGE-Access.en.html>`_ version of the model which distinguishes rural and urban population with different household incomes in developing countries. | ||
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| Understanding how population and economic growth develops in the SSPs gives a first layer of understanding of the multiple mitigation and adaptation challenges. Population growth evolves in response to how fertility, mortality, migration, and education of various social strata are assumed to change over time. In SSP2, global population peaks at 9.4 billion people around 2070, and slowly declines thereafter (KC and Lutz, 2015 :cite:`kc_human_2014`). Gross Domestic Product (GDP) follows regional historical trends (Dellink et al., 2015 :cite:`dellink_long-term_2015`). In SSP2, average income grows by a factor of six and reaches about 60,000 USD/capita by the end of the century (all GDP/capita figures use USD2005 and purchasing-power-parity – PPP). The SSP2 GDP projection is situated in-between the estimates for SSP1 and SSP3, which reach global average income levels of 82,000 USD2005 and 22,000 USD2005, respectively, by the end of the century. SSP2 depicts a future of global progress where developing countries achieve significant economic growth. Today, average per capita income in the global North is about five times higher than in the global South. In SSP2, developing countries reach today’s average income levels of the OECD between 2060 and 2090, depending on the region. However, modest improvements of educational attainment levels result in declines in education-specific fertility rates, leading to incomplete economic convergence across different world regions. This is particularly an issue for Africa. Overall, both the population and GDP developments in SSP2 are designed to be situated in the middle of the road between SSP1 and SSP3, see KC and Lutz (2015) :cite:`kc_human_2014` and Dellink et al (2015) :cite:`dellink_long-term_2015` for details. (Fricko et al., 2016 :cite:`fricko_marker_2016`) | ||
| Understanding how population and economic growth develops in the SSPs gives a first layer of understanding of the multiple mitigation and adaptation challenges. Population growth evolves in response to how fertility, mortality, migration, and education of various social strata are assumed to change over time. In SSP2, global population peaks at 9.4 billion people around 2070, and slowly declines thereafter (KC and Lutz, 2015 :cite:`kc_human_2014`). Gross Domestic Product (GDP) follows regional historical trends (Dellink et al., 2015 :cite:`dellink_long-term_2015`). In SSP2, average income grows by a factor of six and reaches about 60,000 USD/capita by the end of the century (all GDP/capita figures use USD2005 and purchasing-power-parity – PPP). The SSP2 GDP projection is situated in-between the estimates for SSP1 and SSP3, which reach global average income levels of 82,000 USD2005 and 22,000 USD2005, respectively, by the end of the century. SSP2 depicts a future of global progress where developing countries achieve significant economic growth. Today, average per capita income in the global North is about five times higher than that in the global South. In SSP2, developing countries reach today’s average income levels of the OECD between 2060 and 2090, depending on the region. However, modest improvements of educational attainment levels result in declines in education-specific fertility rates, leading to incomplete economic convergence across different world regions. This is particularly an issue for Africa. Overall, both the population and GDP developments in SSP2 are designed to be situated in the middle of the road between SSP1 and SSP3, see KC and Lutz (2015) :cite:`kc_human_2014` and Dellink et al (2015) :cite:`dellink_long-term_2015` for details. (Fricko et al., 2016 :cite:`fricko_marker_2016`) |
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(Fricko et al., 2016 :cite:fricko_marker_2016) is placed after the sentence; I guess placing it directly after "SSP2" in the last sentence would be most clear.
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This one is closed because I open a new one to reflect the comments and merge to the right branch (2019-update). |
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